Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
